Radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has threatened to lift by the end of the week a six-month cease-fire widely credited with helping reduce violence in Iraq, officials said Wednesday.
Sheik Salah al-Obeidi, a spokesman for al-Sadr in the Shiite holy city of Najaf, said that if the cleric failed to issue a statement by Saturday saying that the cease-fire was extended "then that means the freeze is over."
The cease-fire was declared in August and due to expire at this month's end.
The maverick cleric announced earlier this month that he would not renew the order unless the Iraqi government purges "criminal gangs" operating within security forces he claims are targeting his followers.
Let's look at it from a couple of angles here.
First off, if he ends the cease fire, it will show the Iraqi's as well as the rest of the world one of the main reasons for the violence levels in Iraq was because of him and his militia's attacks. That won't look good upon his part.
Secondly, Iraq's security forces have been making great strides, so I don't see him having the same impact as he did before in terms of violence levels.
Thirdly, it will definitively show that Iran had/has a hand in it all and it would push Iran out into the spotlight.
Finally, with Iraqi civilians starting to calm down and enjoy the relative peace, al-Sadr might find himself on the other end of a public backlash when people start thinking to themselves "not this again".
Personally, I think he'll come around and extend the cease fire. He wants us out and he's smart enough to know that we're not going anywhere until Iraq can handle it's own affairs and violence levels.
Travis
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